INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATU ULO FISHING PORT BASED ON FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS

Watu Ulo Beach serves as a vital hub for fishing communities, supplying resources for sea fishing and serving as a landing point for catches. The local government plans to construct a fishing port at Watu Ulo to enhance facilities for fishermen. This study assesses the financial feasibility and sensitivity of investing in the port's construction, considering three income scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. Financial analysis using NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods deems the project feasible for moderate and optimistic scenarios, but not for the pessimistic scenario due to IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%). Sensitivity analysis reveals that revenue sensitivity is critical for all scenarios, with the investment becoming unfeasible if revenue falls below certain thresholds: -13.67% for pessimistic, -39.96% for moderate, and -40.75% for optimistic scenarios. Operating cost sensitivity is also crucial, rendering the investment unfeasible if costs deviate beyond specific thresholds: -15.96% for pessimistic, +22.67% for moderate, and 25.59% for optimistic scenarios.


INTRODUCTION
The construction of the Fishing Port is a way from the Regional Government, namely the East Java Provincial Maritime and Fisheries Service, to be able to support fishermen in order to catch fish properly and get abundant results in order to increase the potential for regional original income (PAD) from the fisheries sector.
Based on data from the East Java Provincial Maritime and Fisheries Service as the manager of the Fishing Port, it is obtained that the data of ships leaning on Watu Ulo Beach are around 63 units of Payang boats, and 400 units of fishing boats using hand line fishing gear or fishing rods.And the type of fish catch is in the form of grouper, layur fish and several other types of reef fish.For the catch of Payang nets in the form of tuna, fly fish, lemuru, selar, skipjack, baby tuna and several other types of pelagic fish.
In this study, an investment feasibility analysis of the Watu Ulo Fishing Port in Jember Regency was conducted.(Kristiawan et al., 2017)The investment feasibility analysis carried out was reviewed based on financial aspects and sensitivity aspects.The purpose of this research is to test whether or not the investment in the construction of a fishing port in Watu Ulo, Jember Regency, is feasible if it is built.This aims to avoid unfavorable things such as errors in building technical planning, errors in estimating the target market, constraints in construction implementation, cost overruns, and errors in planning the management of fishing ports.

Investment Feasibility Analysis
Analysis is the investment of capital for one or more assets that are owned and usually have a long term in the hope of getting profits in the future.According to some experts, what is meant by investment is: 1.
Ahmad K, 1996 Investment is placing money or funds in the hope of obtaining certain additional or profit on the money or funds.

2.
Budikusuma W, 2011, Investment is using resources (money, time, goods) to create an addition to existing facilities.

Port
According to Law No.17 of 2008 concerning shipping, it is stated that a port is a place consisting of land and / or waters with certain boundaries as a place of government activities and business activities that are used as a place for ships to lean, up and down passengers, and / or loading and unloading goods, in the form of terminals and ship berths equipped with shipping safety and security facilities and port support activities as well as a place for intra-and intermodal transportation movements.

RESEARCH METHODS
The research location of Watu Ulo Beach is in Sumber Rejo Village, Ambulu District, Jember Regency.The data used in this research are primary and secondary data.Primary data was obtained from observations at the research location and interviews with the relevant agencies, namely the East Java Provincial Maritime and Fisheries Service to obtain data on the number of ships docked at the port, the number of fish catches and data on the number of fishermen, operational cost data.Secondary data used includes masterplan data, Engineering Estimate data, and some statistical data and regulations that are in accordance with this research.After obtaining such data, an investment feasibility analysis is carried out based on financial aspects and sensitivity aspects.

Data Analysis Techniques
To answer the steps needed in the research, what must be done include: 1.
Conduct a literature study

Data Description
In this data description, researchers try to collect data in the form of primary data and secondary data.For primary data, researchers conducted observations at the research location and conducted interviews with the relevant offices to find out the number of ships that docked, the amount of fish catch, and data on the number of fishermen in the port.As for primary data, researchers collected data in the form of Masterplan, Engineering Estimate (EE) data or Cost Budget Plan (RAB), statistical data and regulations that are suitable for application in this study (Statistik, 2009).
Watu Ulo Beach is located in Sumber Rejo Village, Ambulu District, Jember Regency.At this time, Watu Ulo Beach has been used by fishermen to lean the fishing https://ojs.transpublika.com/index.php/IJATEIS/E-ISSN: 2828-5425 boat and as a place to fill supplies for fishing.From the latest known data, the total number of boats leaning on the beach is 447 units, the number of registered fishermen is 10,250 people and the fish catch is 4950, 375 tons.
Source: East Java Provincial Maritime and Fisheries Service (2023) Figure 2. Master Plan of Watu Ulo Fishing Port.

Research Findings
Based on the research findings, primary and secondary data were obtained.Primary data includes data in the form of the number of fishermen on Watu Ulo Beach, the number of ships that lean on Watu Ulo Beach and the number of fish catches obtained from 2018 to 2023.Which is listed in the following table:

Table 1. Data on the number of fishermen 2018-2023
Source: DKP JATIM interview, processed by the author (2023).

Table 2. Data on the number of fishermen 2018-2023
Source: DKP JATIM interview, processed by the author (2023).

Investment Cost, Operating Cost, Revenue Value
Secondary data obtained shows that the value of the Cost Budget Plan (RAB), which is Rp.212,995,077,900.00, is planned for the 2021 fiscal year.The RAB value is used as an Investment Cost.Operating Costs of IDR 1,075,840,000.00 are taken from the Budget Control Document (DPA) of the Puger Technical Service Unit (UPT) which are both located in Jember Regency.(Daerah, 2016)The revenue value is taken from Governor Regulation No. 23 of 2023 concerning Adjustment of Regional Retribution Rates, for the revenue value is made into 3 scenarios, namely pessimistic scenario, moderate scenario, optimistic scenario.The revenue value for the pessimistic scenario is Rp.11,201,253,567.00.The revenue value for the moderate scenario is Rp.17,864,065,837.00,The revenue value for the optimistic scenario is Rp.27,708,540,635.00,

Calculation of Life Cycle Cost (LCC)
https://ojs.transpublika.com/index.php/IJATEIS/E-ISSN: 2828-5425 Life Cycle Cost (LCC) in this study is to determine all investment costs required for the construction of the Watu Ulo Fishing Port -Jember Regency.(Berawi et al., 2021)Including Investment Costs, Operational and Maintenance Costs and the value of income obtained if the development is carried out, the details are in the following table: Source: Author's Processed Data (2023).
After obtaining the results of the calculation of the Future Value and Life Cycle Cost values, then calculate the Financial Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis.

Financial Analysis 1.
Cash Flow Before the Financial Analysis is carried out, the cash flow is calculated first.Among them are in the following table : From the results of the Sensitivity Calculation Analysis The income value for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -13.67% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible.The value of income for the moderate sensitive scenario at -39.96% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible.The value of income for an optimistic scenario is sensitive at -40.75% if it is smaller than that, the investment becomes unfeasible.And if the Operating Cost Sensitivity for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -15.96% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes not feasible.The revenue value for the moderate sensitive scenario is +22.67% if it is greater than that, the investment is not feasible.The revenue value for the optimistic scenario is sensitive at 25.59%, if it is greater than that, the investment is not feasible.

Table 9 . Sensitivity Analysis Results
cost analysis of needs has been carried out for the work of the Watu Ulo Fishing Port Development Planning in Jember Regency if it is carried out in 2025 using the FV (Future Value) method for Investment Value Rp. 242,814,388,806, Operating Costs Rp. 1,226,457,600.The Revenue Value for the Pessimistic Scenario is Rp.12,545,403,995, the Moderate Scenario is Rp.20,007,753,737, the Optimistic Scenario is Rp.31,033,565,511.00.As for the LCC (Lyfe Cycle Cost) value, the pessimistic scenario is Rp.256,586,250,401, the moderate scenario is Rp.264,048,600,143, the optimistic scenario is Rp.275,074,411,917.2. From 3 Pessimistic, Moderate and Optimistic Scenarios, the Investment Analysis is obtained if the NPV, BCR, PP Analysis states that the Development is Feasible to implement.Meanwhile, the IRR Analysis states that the Pessimistic Scenario is not feasible, while the Optimistic and Moderate Scenarios state that it is feasible to implement.3.