Factors Influencing Traffic Accidents on the Cipularang Toll Road: An Analysis Using Multiple Linear Regression
Main Article Content
Dedi Kurniawan*
Sutanto Soehodho
R. Jachrizal Sumabrata
Traffic accidents remain a critical issue in road safety, particularly on toll roads with high traffic intensity such as the Cipularang Toll Road. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing traffic accidents by applying a multiple linear regression approach, with a focus on human-related factors represented by driver physical condition. Data spanning 2023–2025 from the Cipularang Toll Road corridor were collected through structured interview surveys and supported by secondary data from official accident records. The variables examined include driver characteristics, vehicle conditions, traffic and environmental factors, and behavioral aspects. The results show that estimated speed and driving license type have a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable at the 5% significance level. Estimated speed is identified as the most influential factor, indicating that higher speeds are associated with a decline in driver physical condition, which may increase accident risk. The selection of physical condition as the dependent variable is supported by police reports indicating that a substantial number of accidents are caused by driver fatigue, drowsiness, and reduced alertness, especially on long-distance toll roads. Other variables, although not statistically significant, demonstrate relationships consistent with theoretical expectations. These findings highlight the importance of addressing both speed management and driver fatigue in reducing accident risk. The study contributes to evidence-based road safety strategies by providing a comprehensive analysis of accident-related factors, helping policymakers and toll road operators design more effective safety interventions, especially on high-risk segments like the Cipularang Toll Road.
Al-Bayati, A. H., Shakoree, A. S., & Ramadan, Z. A. (2021). Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Density on Selected Multilane Rural Highways. Civil Engineering Journal, 7(7), 1183–1202. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2021-03091719
Alsaleh, R., Walia, K., Moshiri, G., & Alsaleh, Y. T. (2025). Traffic Collision Severity Modeling Using Multi-Level Multinomial Logistic Regression Model. Applied Sciences, 15(2), 838. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15020838
Andarini, D., Camelia, A., & Ibrahim, M. M. (2021). Factors related to road accidents in Palembang, South Sumatera, Indonesia. International Journal of Public Health Science, 10(3), 638–645. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijphs.v10i3.20768
Aprianto, R., Rokhim, A., Basuki, A., & Sugiyarto, S. (2021). Pengaruh Karakteristik Pengemudi Dan Pemanfaatan Rest Area Terhadap Kelelahan Pengemudi Studi Kasus Ruas Jalan Tol Pejagan-Solo. Jurnal Keselamatan Transportasi Jalan (Indonesian Journal of Road Safety), 8(1), 92–103. https://doi.org/10.46447/ktj.v8i1.310
Cameron, M. H., & Elvik, R. (2010). Nilsson’s Power Model connecting speed and road trauma: Applicability by road type and alternative models for urban roads. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 42(6), 1908–1915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.05.012
Dewi, A. T. K., Siregar, M. L., & Soehodho, S. (2025). Identification of Variables Affecting the Number of Traffic Accident Casualties (Intersections (4 and T) in Yogyakarta). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL ON ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND INFORMATION SYSTEM, 4(2), 329–342. https://doi.org/10.55047/ijateis.v4i2.1809
Elvik, R. (2008). Road safety management by objectives: A critical analysis of the Norwegian approach. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 40(3), 1115–1122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.12.002
Elvik, R., Vadeby, A., Hels, T., & Van Schagen, I. (2019). Updated estimates of the relationship between speed and road safety at the aggregate and individual levels. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 123, 114–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.11.014
Febrianti, A., & Rahayu, R. (2019). Analisis Tingkat Stres dan Performansi berdasarkan Kecepatan Respon dan Jumlah Kesalahan serta Hubungannya pada Pengemudi Mobil Pribadi di Bandung. Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Dan Industri, 6(1), 39–45. https://doi.org/10.25124/jrsi.v6i1.372
Gorzelanczyk, P., & Tylicki, H. (2023). Methodology for Optimizing Factors Affecting Road Accidents in Poland. Forecasting, 5(1), 336–350. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast5010018
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (A. E. Hilbert (ed.); fifth edit). McGraw-Hill.
Joni, H., & Jasim, M. (2022). Identifying risk factors influencing traffic accidents for Baghdad expressways. Engineering and Technology Journal, 40(5), 802–809. https://doi.org/10.30684/etj.2021.131184.1011
Montgomery, D. C., Peck, E. A., & Vining, G. G. (2012). Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Wiley.
Muhammad, F., & Lutfi, I. (2019). Pengaruh Gaya Berkendara dan Motivasi Berkendara terhadap Safety Riding Anggota Klub Motor di Jabodetabek. TAZKIYA Journal of Psychology, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.15408/tazkiya.v1i2.10680
Oktopianto, Y., Marwanto, R. P., & Rukman, R. (2023). Pemodelan Kondisi Geometrik Jalan Terhadap Potensi Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas. Borneo Engineering : Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 7(3), 352–362. https://doi.org/10.35334/be.v7i3.4671
Puspasari, M. A. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Chronotype dan Body Mass Index (BMI) terhadap Tingkat Kantuk Pengemudi. Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri, 12(1), 105–112. https://doi.org/10.26593/jrsi.v12i1.6546.105-112
Rahmawati, R., & Azwar, A. G. (2025). Analisis Kelelahan Subjektif dan Objektif Pada Pengemudi Ojek Online di Kota Bandung. Rekayasa Industri Dan Mesin (ReTIMS), 6(2), 84–88. https://doi.org/10.32897/retims.2025.6.2.3831
Sihombing, A. J., & Widyastuti, H. (2021). Analisa Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas di Ruas Jalan Tol Cipularang, Purwakarta. Jurnal Teknik ITS, 9(2), 266–271. https://doi.org/10.12962/j23373539.v9i2.57996
Tamin, O. Z. (2000). Perencanaan dan Pemodelan Transportasi (Edisi Kedu). Penerbit ITB.
Tuasikal, H., Thamrin, Y., Syam, A., Naiem, F., Muis, M., & Amqam, H. (2020). Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents on Online Transportation Riders in Ambon City. Journal of Asian Multicultural Research for Social Sciences Study, 1(2), 48–55. https://doi.org/10.47616/jamrsss.v1i2.55
Wangsa, S., Samba, P., Handajani, M., & Muldiyanto, A. (2021). Analisa Penyebab Kemacetan Dan Kecelakaan Jalan Raya Ngaliyan Kota Semarang Tanjakan Silayur. Jurnal Keselamatan Transportasi Jalan (Indonesian Journal of Road Safety), 8(2), 174–181. https://doi.org/10.46447/ktj.v8i2.407
Warpani, S. P. (2002). Pengelolaan Lalu Lintas dan Angkutan Jalan. Penerbit ITB.
WHO. (2018). Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565684
Wibowo, K. (2025). Analisis Perilaku Berkendara dan Keselamatan Pengendara Sepeda Motor di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Jurnal Ilmiah WUNY, 7(2), 18–33. https://doi.org/10.21831/jwuny.v7i2.85207
Yunistra, G. G., Purba, H. H., & Dwiatmoko, H. (2022). Biaya, Penyebab dan Manajemen Risiko Lokasi Blackspot di Ruas Tol Jati Luhur ITC - Padalarang Barat Km 84 - Km 120+500. Konstruksia, 13(2), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.24853/jk.13.2.65-80
