Economic Evaluation of Cobalt and Iron Pricing in Lateritic Nickel Ore Sales Based on Forecasted Benchmark Mineral Prices (Period II April-Period II July 2026)
Main Article Content
Marwan Zam Mili*
Muhammad Ilham Kadar
The pricing of lateritic nickel ore in Indonesia has traditionally been based on nickel (Ni) content alone, neglecting associated elements such as cobalt (Co) and iron (Fe), which may lead to undervaluation. This study aims to evaluate the economic impact of incorporating cobalt and iron in lateritic nickel ore pricing based on forecasted Benchmark Mineral Prices (HPM). Secondary data comprising Benchmark Mineral Reference Prices (HMA) for nickel, cobalt, and iron from Period I of May 2025 to Period I of April 2026 were utilized. Price forecasting employed the Moving Average method of order 2, selected based on the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE), projecting prices from Period II of April to Period II of July 2026. A comparative approach between existing and proposed pricing schemes was applied. Results show that incorporating cobalt and iron significantly increases ore value, with the limonite layer rising from $21/ton to $85/ton and the saprolite layer from $47/ton to $70-75/ton. Based on volumes of 3.8 million wmt (limonite) and 3.62 million wmt (saprolite), nickel's economic potential reaches USD 60,211,426 (IDR 957,537,484,403) and USD 103,792,752 (IDR 1,650,607,831,636) respectively, while cobalt contributes USD 19,550,965 (IDR 310,917,430,537) and USD 1,978,843 (IDR 31,469,375,560). These findings confirm that a comprehensive pricing scheme encompassing all mineral constituents is essential for improving valuation accuracy and supporting equitable mineral pricing policies.
Anbiyak, N., & Cahyaningrum, T. (2021). Identifikasi Zona Kaya Kobalt pada Cebakan Nikel Laterit di Indonesia. Indonesian Mining Professionals Journal, 2(2), 103–110. https://doi.org/10.36986/impj.v2i2.35
Arianos, S., Carbone, A., & Türk, C. (2011). Self-similarity of higher-order moving averages. Physical Review E, 84(4), 046113. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.84.046113
Arif, I. (2018). Nikel Indonesia. PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Clout, J. M. F., & Manuel, J. R. (2022). Mineralogical, chemical, and physical metallurgical characteristics of iron ore. In Iron Ore (pp. 59–108). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-820226-5.00012-4
Crundwell, F. K., Moats, M. S., Ramachandran, V., Robinson, T. G., & Davenport, W. G. (2011). Recycling of Nickel, Cobalt and Platinum-Group Metals. In Extractive Metallurgy of Nickel, Cobalt and Platinum Group Metals (pp. 537–549). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-096809-4.10038-3
Dalvi, A. D., Bacon, W. G., & Osborne, R. C. (2004). The Past and the Future of Nickel Laterites. PDAC 2004 International Conference Trade Show and Investors Exchange, 1–27.
Dias, P. A., Blagoeva, D., Pavel, C., & Arvanitidis, N. (2018). Cobalt: Demand-Supply Balances in the Transition to Electric Mobility. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/97710
Du, X., & Thakur, G. C. (2025, October). The Growing Importance of Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition and U.S. Supply Chain Security. SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. https://doi.org/10.2118/227895-MS
Elias, M. (2002). Nickel Laterite Deposits-Geological Overview, Resources and Exploitation. Centre for Ore Deposit Research, 205–220.
Gocht, W. R., Zantop, H., & Eggert, R. G. (1988). International Mineral Economics. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-73321-5
Golightly, J. P. (1981). Nickeliferous Laterite Deposits. In Seventy-Fifth Anniversary Volume (pp. 710–735). Economic Geology Publishing Company. https://doi.org/10.5382/AV75.18
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (A. E. Hilbert (ed.); fifth edit). McGraw-Hill.
Gultom, T., & Sianipar, A. (2020). High pressure acid leaching: a newly introduced technology in Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 413(1), 012015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/413/1/012015
Hasria, H., & Septiana, S. (2024). Geologi Endapan Nikel Laterit. Deepublish.
Humphreys, D. (2010). The great metals boom: A retrospective. Resources Policy, 35(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.07.002
IEA. (2022). Global Supply Chains of EV Batteries. In Global EV Outlook 2021. International Energy Agency (IEA).
Jiang, Z., Dong, X., & Yoon, S.-M. (2025). Impact of Oil Prices on Key Energy Mineral Prices: Fresh Evidence from Quantile and Wavelet Approaches. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5093874
Msumange, D. A., Jampaiah, D., Tardio, J., Nilsson, M., Arandiyan, H., & Bhargava, S. K. (2026). A Review of Nickel and Cobalt from Laterite Ores: Toward Sustainable Extraction Pathways for the Battery Industry. Journal of Sustainable Metallurgy, 12(2), 1038–1069. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40831-026-01439-6
Mudd, G. M. (2010). The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints. Resources Policy, 35(2), 98–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.12.001
OECD, & IGF. (2024). Determining the Price of Minerals: A Transfer Pricing Framework for Lithium. OECD.
Scarcioffolo, A. R., & Etienne, X. (2021). Testing directional predictability between energy prices: A quantile-based analysis. Resources Policy, 74, 102258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102258
Seo, J., Kim, K., Bae, I., Lee, J., & Kim, H. (2016). A Study on Classification of Limonite and Saprolite from Nickel Laterite Ores. Journal of the Korean Institute of Resources Recycling, 25(1), 40–47. https://doi.org/10.7844/kirr.2016.25.1.40
Tamehe, L. S., Zhao, Y., Xu, W., & Gao, J. (2024). Ni(Co) Laterite Deposits of Southeast Asia: A Review and Perspective. Minerals, 14(2), 134. https://doi.org/10.3390/min14020134
Tilton, J. E., & Guzmán, J. I. (2016). Mineral Economics and Policy. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315733708
UNCTAD. (2004). Trade and Development Report 2004: Policy Coherence, Development Strategies and Integration into the World Economy. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
USGS. (2023). Mineral commodity summaries 2023. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2023
Wakila, M. H., Nompo, S., Jafar, N., Thamsi, A. B., Munir, A. S., & Heriansyah, A. F. (2024). Analysis of Cobalt Distribution and Co-Ni Correlation in Nickel Laterite Zonation in Tropical Region. The Iraqi Geological Journal, 57(2B), 205–218. https://doi.org/10.46717/igj.57.2B.14ms-2024-8-24
