Inflation, DER, PER, and TATO as Determinants of Capital Gains for Indonesian Telecommunication Companies (2020-2025)
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Sigit Kusumo Ati*
Agus Maolana Hidayat
Budi Rustandi Kartawinata
Telecommunications sector stocks are widely regarded as stable, defensive investments, attractive to investors due to consistent capital gains and reliable dividend yields. Financial performance across major operators shows revenue growth, though accompanied by rising operational costs driven by network investment and corporate actions, while growth of the digital economy and demand for internet data continue to drive capital gains. Focusing on ten telecommunications companies over the 2020–2025 period, this study explores how capital gains are shaped by the Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), the Price-Earnings Ratio (PER), Total Asset Turnover (TATO), and the inflation rate. A panel data regression framework was employed, with model selection guided by the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier procedures, alongside classical assumption testing to confirm that the estimates were consistent, unbiased, and precise. The results indicate that inflation negatively and significantly affects capital gains, while DER, PER, and TATO are all positively and significantly associated with capital gains in partial analyses. Jointly, these four predictors explain 9% of the variance in capital gains and exert a collectively significant influence. Because telecommunications stocks often experience price swings, fundamental analysis remains vital for determining true share value and appraising business fundamentals, beyond what short-term price actions reveal. Asset values are further shaped by infrastructure expansion, including fiber-optic networks, base transceiver stations, and data centers, as well as by capital structure and leverage, which influence firm value. Between 2020 and 2025, inflation in Indonesia remained relatively stable, though its rise contributed to higher operating costs and profit stagnation.
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